Marcus Holmes

Professor of Government · William & Mary

The interpersonal foundations of international politics

I study how leaders understand one another, how trust develops between adversaries, and how interpersonal relationships shape diplomacy and international security.

About

How do political leaders figure out what other leaders intend to do?

I am Professor of Government at William & Mary, where I study international relations, diplomacy, and political psychology.

States routinely have to make consequential judgments about one another under conditions of uncertainty. Is an adversary genuinely seeking accommodation or simply buying time? Is a military buildup defensive or offensive? Can another leader be trusted to follow through on an agreement? And can diplomacy change how political leaders answer these questions?

My research examines the interpersonal processes through which leaders attempt to understand one another. I am particularly interested in face-to-face diplomacy, trust, intention understanding, political psychology, and the security dilemma. Across this work, I explore how the characteristics of diplomatic interaction shape leaders' ability to interpret signals, recognize one another's fears and motivations, and sometimes transform adversarial relationships.

My more recent work extends these questions to changes in the practice of diplomacy itself, including personalist and court diplomacy, digital diplomacy, and the growing role of artificial intelligence in diplomatic communication.

Research

Three connected areas of inquiry

Diplomacy, Trust, and Intentions

How do leaders determine whether another state is threatening, trustworthy, or genuinely interested in cooperation?

My work examines face-to-face diplomacy, interpersonal trust, social bonding, reassurance, and the conditions under which leaders revise deeply held beliefs about adversaries.

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Security Dilemmas and Political Psychology

International conflicts often emerge not only from incompatible interests but from fear, uncertainty, and misunderstanding.

A particular focus is security dilemma sensibility: the capacity to recognize that threatening behavior may be motivated by fear rather than aggression, and to understand how one's own actions may contribute to that fear.

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The Changing Practice of Diplomacy

Diplomacy is changing.

My current work examines personalized forms of international politics, informal intermediaries, status and spectacle, as well as how digital technologies and artificial intelligence are changing diplomatic communication.

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Current & Recent Work

Projects

Book · 2026

Interpersonal Diplomacy: The Making of Atomic Bonds in International Crises

With Nicholas J. Wheeler · Oxford University Press

This book develops an interpersonal approach to international relations, examining how encounters between political leaders can shape intention understanding, trust, and international political change.

Book project

The New Court Diplomacy

This project examines the resurgence of highly personalized diplomacy in contemporary international politics. It explores the role of leaders, courtiers, informal intermediaries, flattery, gifts, spectacle, and personal access, as well as the difficulties states face when agreements between leaders must be translated into institutional action.

Research program

Security Dilemma Sensibility

With Nicholas J. Wheeler and collaborators, I am developing research on why some political actors are better able than others to recognize the fears and motivations underlying an adversary's behavior, and how different forms of diplomatic interaction can facilitate or inhibit this capacity.

Selected Work

Books and articles

Face-to-Face Diplomacy: Social Neuroscience and International Relations

Cambridge University Press, 2018

Why do political leaders invest so much time and effort meeting one another in person? Face-to-Face Diplomacy argues that face-to-face interaction provides distinctive opportunities for leaders to understand intentions and evaluate the sincerity of their counterparts.

Best Book Award · ISA Diplomatic Studies Section
“The Force of Face-to-Face Diplomacy: Mirror Neurons and the Problem of Intentions”

International Organization, 2013

This article develops the theoretical foundations of my work on face-to-face diplomacy and the problem of understanding intentions in international politics.

Best Article Award · ISA Diplomatic Studies Section
“The Strength of Weak Bonds: Substituting Bodily Copresence in Diplomatic Social Bonding”

With Nicholas J. Wheeler · European Journal of International Relations, 2021

This research examines what happens when diplomats cannot interact in physical copresence and considers the extent to which mediated interaction can reproduce forms of social bonding associated with face-to-face diplomacy.

Best Article Award · ISA Diplomatic Studies Section